Expert Political Judgment
How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition
Philip E. Tetlock
The book examines the accuracy of political experts' forecasts, analyzing over 20 years of data to assess their predictive capabilities. It challenges the reliability of expert opinions and introduces the concept of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" to categorize thinkers, advocating for more nuanced and self-critical approaches to political analysis.
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