Summary:
The book examines the accuracy of political experts' forecasts, analyzing over 20 years of data to assess their predictive capabilities. It challenges the reliability of expert opinions and introduces the concept of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" to categorize thinkers, advocating for more nuanced and self-critical approaches to political analysis.
Key points:
1. Expert Performance and Accountability: Tetlock finds political experts' predictions often no better than chance. Holding experts accountable can improve their forecasts.
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